President Donald Trump's job approval ratings have hovered in the low-to-mid 30s to low 40s through early 2026, with recent CNN polling from the past day showing a record-low 31% on economy handling amid persistent high inflation and elevated gas prices, dragging overall sentiment to new second-term lows around 37% approve per averages from Nate Silver and RealClearPolitics. This decline from a 46% start in January 2025 stems from souring independent voters (Quinnipiac net -38%) and economic dissatisfaction outweighing policy wins like regulatory rollbacks. Foreign policy challenges, including a recent address on the Iran conflict yielding only 36% approval (Fox), add pressure. Traders eye potential rebounds via improving economic indicators, successful diplomatic resolutions, or legislative successes ahead of November 2026 midterms, though historical precedents show incumbents rarely peak above 50% late in terms without broad growth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 44%
12%
↑ 45%
11%
↑ 46%
12%
↑ 47%
5%
↑ 48%
7%
↑ 49%
4%
↑ 50%
6%
$2,957 Vol.
↑ 44%
$2,445 Vol.
12%
↑ 45%
$0 Vol.
11%
↑ 46%
$512 Vol.
12%
↑ 47%
$0 Vol.
5%
↑ 48%
$0 Vol.
7%
↑ 49%
$0 Vol.
4%
↑ 50%
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Donald Trump's job approval ratings have hovered in the low-to-mid 30s to low 40s through early 2026, with recent CNN polling from the past day showing a record-low 31% on economy handling amid persistent high inflation and elevated gas prices, dragging overall sentiment to new second-term lows around 37% approve per averages from Nate Silver and RealClearPolitics. This decline from a 46% start in January 2025 stems from souring independent voters (Quinnipiac net -38%) and economic dissatisfaction outweighing policy wins like regulatory rollbacks. Foreign policy challenges, including a recent address on the Iran conflict yielding only 36% approval (Fox), add pressure. Traders eye potential rebounds via improving economic indicators, successful diplomatic resolutions, or legislative successes ahead of November 2026 midterms, though historical precedents show incumbents rarely peak above 50% late in terms without broad growth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,957End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Donald Trump's job approval ratings have hovered in the low-to-mid 30s to low 40s through early 2026, with recent CNN polling from the past day showing a record-low 31% on economy handling amid persistent high inflation and elevated gas prices, dragging overall sentiment to new second-term lows around 37% approve per averages from Nate Silver and RealClearPolitics. This decline from a 46% start in January 2025 stems from souring independent voters (Quinnipiac net -38%) and economic dissatisfaction outweighing policy wins like regulatory rollbacks. Foreign policy challenges, including a recent address on the Iran conflict yielding only 36% approval (Fox), add pressure. Traders eye potential rebounds via improving economic indicators, successful diplomatic resolutions, or legislative successes ahead of November 2026 midterms, though historical precedents show incumbents rarely peak above 50% late in terms without broad growth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Volume
$2,957End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump's job approval ratings have hovered in the low-to-mid 30s to low 40s through early 2026, with recent CNN polling from the past day showing a record-low 31% on economy handling amid persistent high inflation and elevated gas prices, dragging overall sentiment to new second-term lows around 37% approve per averages from Nate Silver and RealClearPolitics. This decline from a 46% start in January 2025 stems from souring independent voters (Quinnipiac net -38%) and economic dissatisfaction outweighing policy wins like regulatory rollbacks. Foreign policy challenges, including a recent address on the Iran conflict yielding only 36% approval (Fox), add pressure. Traders eye potential rebounds via improving economic indicators, successful diplomatic resolutions, or legislative successes ahead of November 2026 midterms, though historical precedents show incumbents rarely peak above 50% late in terms without broad growth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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