Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors a high of 3°C or higher in Toronto on March 27 at 44.5% implied probability, propelled by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima of 2–5°C under a building high-pressure ridge from the Atlantic. Recent observations at Toronto Pearson Airport show rebounding temps from mid-March cold snaps, with upper-air data indicating a disrupted polar vortex allowing mild southerly flow. Climatological norms for late March average 5–7°C highs, positioning sub-zero outcomes like -1°C (17.5%) as lower-confidence tails amid model convergence on above-freezing conditions, though overnight model updates could adjust for any late cold advection risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Toronto on March 27?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 27?
3°C or higher 50%
2°C 23%
1°C 18%
-1°C 18%
-7°C or below
8%
-6°C
8%
-5°C
9%
-4°C
14%
-3°C
16%
-2°C
17%
-1°C
18%
0°C
18%
1°C
18%
2°C
23%
3°C or higher
60%
3°C or higher 50%
2°C 23%
1°C 18%
-1°C 18%
-7°C or below
8%
-6°C
8%
-5°C
9%
-4°C
14%
-3°C
16%
-2°C
17%
-1°C
18%
0°C
18%
1°C
18%
2°C
23%
3°C or higher
60%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket favors a high of 3°C or higher in Toronto on March 27 at 44.5% implied probability, propelled by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima of 2–5°C under a building high-pressure ridge from the Atlantic. Recent observations at Toronto Pearson Airport show rebounding temps from mid-March cold snaps, with upper-air data indicating a disrupted polar vortex allowing mild southerly flow. Climatological norms for late March average 5–7°C highs, positioning sub-zero outcomes like -1°C (17.5%) as lower-confidence tails amid model convergence on above-freezing conditions, though overnight model updates could adjust for any late cold advection risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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