Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS converge on a Wuhan high temperature of 22-24°C on March 27, driving trader consensus with nearly 70% implied probability across those outcomes, reflecting seasonal spring warming trends in central China where March averages hover around 18-20°C historically. Recent forecast updates highlight southerly airflow and weak high-pressure ridging suppressing cooler air masses, differentiating 22°C (cooler GFS runs with partial cloudiness) from 24°C (warmer ECMWF projections under clearer skies), while 23°C captures the ensemble mean. Uncertainty lingers from potential late-afternoon showers or urban heat island amplification in Wuhan, per China Meteorological Administration guidance, keeping lower extremes like 25°C+ or sub-20°C at slim odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 27?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 27?
22°C 24%
24°C 24%
23°C 22%
21°C 17%
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
6%
20°C
6%
21°C
17%
22°C
24%
23°C
22%
24°C
24%
25°C or higher
6%
22°C 24%
24°C 24%
23°C 22%
21°C 17%
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
6%
20°C
6%
21°C
17%
22°C
24%
23°C
22%
24°C
24%
25°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:17 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS converge on a Wuhan high temperature of 22-24°C on March 27, driving trader consensus with nearly 70% implied probability across those outcomes, reflecting seasonal spring warming trends in central China where March averages hover around 18-20°C historically. Recent forecast updates highlight southerly airflow and weak high-pressure ridging suppressing cooler air masses, differentiating 22°C (cooler GFS runs with partial cloudiness) from 24°C (warmer ECMWF projections under clearer skies), while 23°C captures the ensemble mean. Uncertainty lingers from potential late-afternoon showers or urban heat island amplification in Wuhan, per China Meteorological Administration guidance, keeping lower extremes like 25°C+ or sub-20°C at slim odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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