Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Paris high of 11°C at 27% implied probability, driven by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peak temperatures around 10-12°C amid a persistent northerly airflow and high-pressure blocking pattern over northern Europe. This setup suppresses warm advection from the Atlantic, keeping readings below the March historical average of 13°C, with official observations from recent days confirming cooler-than-normal conditions. Differentiating factors include subtle model spreads: GFS leans cooler at 10°C due to increased cloud cover, while UKMO edges toward 12-14°C if afternoon insolation breaks through; 15°C+ remains improbable without a sharp jet stream shift, per current 00Z runs. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution clarity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on March 27?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 27?
11°C 24%
12°C 24%
10°C 18%
13°C 11%
5°C or below
2%
6°C
4%
7°C
8%
8°C
11%
9°C
12%
10°C
18%
11°C
27%
12°C
25%
13°C
11%
14°C
16%
15°C or higher
2%
11°C 24%
12°C 24%
10°C 18%
13°C 11%
5°C or below
2%
6°C
4%
7°C
8%
8°C
11%
9°C
12%
10°C
18%
11°C
27%
12°C
25%
13°C
11%
14°C
16%
15°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Paris high of 11°C at 27% implied probability, driven by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peak temperatures around 10-12°C amid a persistent northerly airflow and high-pressure blocking pattern over northern Europe. This setup suppresses warm advection from the Atlantic, keeping readings below the March historical average of 13°C, with official observations from recent days confirming cooler-than-normal conditions. Differentiating factors include subtle model spreads: GFS leans cooler at 10°C due to increased cloud cover, while UKMO edges toward 12-14°C if afternoon insolation breaks through; 15°C+ remains improbable without a sharp jet stream shift, per current 00Z runs. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution clarity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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