Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 21°C or higher in Chengdu on March 24 (75% implied probability), driven by updated forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 22-24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly flows. Recent observations show March 23's high nearing 21°C amid above-normal spring temperatures, aligning with Chengdu's late-March climatology of 18-22°C averages but boosted by anomalously mild conditions from weakened cold fronts. Lower odds for exact temperatures like 20°C (8.5%) reflect minor model divergences, while sub-17°C outcomes (<5% combined) are dismissed given low wind chill and abundant sunshine in official outlooks from Chinese meteorological agencies.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 24?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 24?
21°C or higher 75%
20°C 9%
19°C 8%
17°C 7%
11°C или ниже
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
7%
18°C
7%
19°C
8%
20°C
9%
21°C or higher
75%
21°C or higher 75%
20°C 9%
19°C 8%
17°C 7%
11°C или ниже
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
7%
18°C
7%
19°C
8%
20°C
9%
21°C or higher
75%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 21°C or higher in Chengdu on March 24 (75% implied probability), driven by updated forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 22-24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly flows. Recent observations show March 23's high nearing 21°C amid above-normal spring temperatures, aligning with Chengdu's late-March climatology of 18-22°C averages but boosted by anomalously mild conditions from weakened cold fronts. Lower odds for exact temperatures like 20°C (8.5%) reflect minor model divergences, while sub-17°C outcomes (<5% combined) are dismissed given low wind chill and abundant sunshine in official outlooks from Chinese meteorological agencies.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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