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Cognitive Test predictions & odds

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

96%

June 30

$2M Vol.

$20.4K Liq.

51

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

9%

$193K Vol.

$24.7K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Russia nuclear test by...?

Russia nuclear test by...?

7%

December 31, 2026

$1M Vol.

$46.1K Liq.

7

U.S. nuclear test by...?

U.S. nuclear test by...?

9%

December 31, 2026

$666K Vol.

$34.5K Liq.

21

Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan

Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan

46%

Pakistan

$43.9K Vol.

$6.5K Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?

Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?

65%

$1.4K Vol.

$2.6K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?

69%

<2

$5.0K Vol.

$6.0K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Who will testify to congress about Epstein?

Who will testify to congress about Epstein?

37%

Elon Musk

$61.1K Vol.

$10.4K Liq.

11

Ends in about 1 month

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

34%

50%+

$23.2K Vol.

$1.5K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

23%

$66.3K Vol.

$3.9K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

What price will Ethena hit in May?

What price will Ethena hit in May?

29%

↓ 0.08

$2.3K Vol.

$4.9K Liq.

Ends in 15 days

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

61%

60%+

$35.5K Vol.

$1.9K Liq.

4

Ends in about 1 month

Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

48%

50%+

$312K Vol.

$2.2K Liq.

Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above __?

Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above __?

94%

$1.50B

$4.3K Vol.

$6.5K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

What price will Hyperliquid hit in May?

What price will Hyperliquid hit in May?

47%

↓ 38

$68.1K Vol.

$41.0K Liq.

Ends in 15 days

What will Trump post this week? (May 24)

What will Trump post this week? (May 24)

93%

Big / Bigger / Biggest

$283 Vol.

$4.3K Liq.

Ends in 7 days

What will Trump post this week? (May 11 - May 17)

What will Trump post this week? (May 11 - May 17)

41%

Baby

$10.8K Vol.

$526 Liq.

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

18%

45%+

$283K Vol.

$7.7K Liq.

12

Ends in about 1 month

What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of May 18 2026?

What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of May 18 2026?

74%

↓ $395

$0 Vol.

$4.4K Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?

82%

50

$18.3K Vol.

$6.2K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 116 active markets for Cognitive Test that lets you track or trade on predictions like “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $4.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 96% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Cognitive Test predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.