Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing interest rates at its March, May, and June 2024 meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected February CPI data released March 12—showing 3.2% year-over-year headline inflation and 3.8% core—coupled with a robust 275,000 nonfarm payrolls addition in March's jobs report. These figures, exceeding economist forecasts, reinforced Fed Chair Powell's March testimony emphasizing data dependence and no rush to ease from the current 5.25%-5.50% fed funds range. Post-CPI, near-term cut odds plunged, elevating the three-pause outcome while a June cut after two holds trails at 9.5%. Traders await the March 19-20 FOMC statement for policy signals, with April PCE inflation as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 78%
Other 10.9%
Pause–Pause–Cut 10%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.6%
$691,216 Vol.
$691,216 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
78%
Other
11%
Pause–Pause–Cut
10%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 78%
Other 10.9%
Pause–Pause–Cut 10%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.6%
$691,216 Vol.
$691,216 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$18,413 Vol.
78%
Other
$208,992 Vol.
11%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$9,957 Vol.
10%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$326,191 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$129,235 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing interest rates at its March, May, and June 2024 meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected February CPI data released March 12—showing 3.2% year-over-year headline inflation and 3.8% core—coupled with a robust 275,000 nonfarm payrolls addition in March's jobs report. These figures, exceeding economist forecasts, reinforced Fed Chair Powell's March testimony emphasizing data dependence and no rush to ease from the current 5.25%-5.50% fed funds range. Post-CPI, near-term cut odds plunged, elevating the three-pause outcome while a June cut after two holds trails at 9.5%. Traders await the March 19-20 FOMC statement for policy signals, with April PCE inflation as the next key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$691,216End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing interest rates at its March, May, and June 2024 meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected February CPI data released March 12—showing 3.2% year-over-year headline inflation and 3.8% core—coupled with a robust 275,000 nonfarm payrolls addition in March's jobs report. These figures, exceeding economist forecasts, reinforced Fed Chair Powell's March testimony emphasizing data dependence and no rush to ease from the current 5.25%-5.50% fed funds range. Post-CPI, near-term cut odds plunged, elevating the three-pause outcome while a June cut after two holds trails at 9.5%. Traders await the March 19-20 FOMC statement for policy signals, with April PCE inflation as the next key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$691,216End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78% implied probability to the Federal Reserve pausing interest rates at its March, May, and June 2024 meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected February CPI data released March 12—showing 3.2% year-over-year headline inflation and 3.8% core—coupled with a robust 275,000 nonfarm payrolls addition in March's jobs report. These figures, exceeding economist forecasts, reinforced Fed Chair Powell's March testimony emphasizing data dependence and no rush to ease from the current 5.25%-5.50% fed funds range. Post-CPI, near-term cut odds plunged, elevating the three-pause outcome while a June cut after two holds trails at 9.5%. Traders await the March 19-20 FOMC statement for policy signals, with April PCE inflation as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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