Trader consensus heavily favors Republican at 78.5% implied probability for the Vermont gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026, driven by incumbent Gov. Phil Scott's exceptional popularity—named America's most popular governor for 14 straight quarters in a February Morning Consult poll—and his landslide 2024 victory by over 50 points despite Vermont's Democratic lean. Recent fundraising reports from March 17 show Scott holding nearly $200,000 cash on hand with minimal new raises, signaling confidence, while Democrats field a thin roster headlined by economist Amanda Janoo's March 10 announcement amid reports of recruitment struggles. With primaries August 11 and filing deadline May 28, Scott's potential reelection bid—supported by prior polls showing majority Vermonter backing—anchors the Republican edge, though his formal declaration remains pending.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
78%
Democrat
21%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$2,415 Vol.
78%
Democrat
$5,193 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors Republican at 78.5% implied probability for the Vermont gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026, driven by incumbent Gov. Phil Scott's exceptional popularity—named America's most popular governor for 14 straight quarters in a February Morning Consult poll—and his landslide 2024 victory by over 50 points despite Vermont's Democratic lean. Recent fundraising reports from March 17 show Scott holding nearly $200,000 cash on hand with minimal new raises, signaling confidence, while Democrats field a thin roster headlined by economist Amanda Janoo's March 10 announcement amid reports of recruitment struggles. With primaries August 11 and filing deadline May 28, Scott's potential reelection bid—supported by prior polls showing majority Vermonter backing—anchors the Republican edge, though his formal declaration remains pending.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$7,607End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors Republican at 78.5% implied probability for the Vermont gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026, driven by incumbent Gov. Phil Scott's exceptional popularity—named America's most popular governor for 14 straight quarters in a February Morning Consult poll—and his landslide 2024 victory by over 50 points despite Vermont's Democratic lean. Recent fundraising reports from March 17 show Scott holding nearly $200,000 cash on hand with minimal new raises, signaling confidence, while Democrats field a thin roster headlined by economist Amanda Janoo's March 10 announcement amid reports of recruitment struggles. With primaries August 11 and filing deadline May 28, Scott's potential reelection bid—supported by prior polls showing majority Vermonter backing—anchors the Republican edge, though his formal declaration remains pending.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$7,607End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Republican at 78.5% implied probability for the Vermont gubernatorial election on November 3, 2026, driven by incumbent Gov. Phil Scott's exceptional popularity—named America's most popular governor for 14 straight quarters in a February Morning Consult poll—and his landslide 2024 victory by over 50 points despite Vermont's Democratic lean. Recent fundraising reports from March 17 show Scott holding nearly $200,000 cash on hand with minimal new raises, signaling confidence, while Democrats field a thin roster headlined by economist Amanda Janoo's March 10 announcement amid reports of recruitment struggles. With primaries August 11 and filing deadline May 28, Scott's potential reelection bid—supported by prior polls showing majority Vermonter backing—anchors the Republican edge, though his formal declaration remains pending.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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