Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial bid, reinforces trader consensus pricing Republicans at 93.5% to prevail in the November general election, reflecting the state's deep-red status where Donald Trump won by 30 points in 2024 and no Democrat has won since 1992. Recent Republican primary polls through mid-March show Rep. Barry Moore leading at 22-31% post-Trump endorsement, ahead of Attorney General Steve Marshall, amid a crowded field ahead of the May 19 primary and potential June runoff. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican, with weak Democratic contenders like Dakarai Larriett unlikely to compete absent a GOP nominee scandal, historic turnout surge, or national Democratic wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
94%
Democrat
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$5,956 Vol.
94%
Democrat
$3,532 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial bid, reinforces trader consensus pricing Republicans at 93.5% to prevail in the November general election, reflecting the state's deep-red status where Donald Trump won by 30 points in 2024 and no Democrat has won since 1992. Recent Republican primary polls through mid-March show Rep. Barry Moore leading at 22-31% post-Trump endorsement, ahead of Attorney General Steve Marshall, amid a crowded field ahead of the May 19 primary and potential June runoff. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican, with weak Democratic contenders like Dakarai Larriett unlikely to compete absent a GOP nominee scandal, historic turnout surge, or national Democratic wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$9,488End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial bid, reinforces trader consensus pricing Republicans at 93.5% to prevail in the November general election, reflecting the state's deep-red status where Donald Trump won by 30 points in 2024 and no Democrat has won since 1992. Recent Republican primary polls through mid-March show Rep. Barry Moore leading at 22-31% post-Trump endorsement, ahead of Attorney General Steve Marshall, amid a crowded field ahead of the May 19 primary and potential June runoff. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican, with weak Democratic contenders like Dakarai Larriett unlikely to compete absent a GOP nominee scandal, historic turnout surge, or national Democratic wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$9,488End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial bid, reinforces trader consensus pricing Republicans at 93.5% to prevail in the November general election, reflecting the state's deep-red status where Donald Trump won by 30 points in 2024 and no Democrat has won since 1992. Recent Republican primary polls through mid-March show Rep. Barry Moore leading at 22-31% post-Trump endorsement, ahead of Attorney General Steve Marshall, amid a crowded field ahead of the May 19 primary and potential June runoff. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican, with weak Democratic contenders like Dakarai Larriett unlikely to compete absent a GOP nominee scandal, historic turnout surge, or national Democratic wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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