The Bank of Korea’s May 28 decision carries overwhelming market-implied odds of no change at the 2.50% base rate, reflecting eight consecutive holds as policymakers balance above-target inflation against subdued growth and external volatility. Headline CPI reached 2.2% in March, exceeding the 2% goal, with further upside projected from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East tensions that have also pressured the won and heightened financial stability concerns. Growth forecasts for 2026 sit below the prior 2.0% estimate, keeping the central bank data-dependent while recent commentary has edged slightly hawkish without shifting near-term consensus. A sharper acceleration in core inflation or resilient domestic demand could prompt debate on tightening, whereas deeper export weakness or demand contraction would be needed to revive cut expectations.