Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 65.5% implied probability for the leading AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its February 2026 release. The model's thinking variant and base version occupy the first and second positions, showcasing superior performance in coding, reasoning, and open-ended tasks over rivals, bolstered by Anthropic's focus on agentic capabilities and safety-aligned scaling. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, launched mid-February, trails closely in third at 23.5% odds, buoyed by advances in multimodal reasoning and efficiency. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants linger lower amid incremental updates, while xAI's Grok-4.20 beta ranks fourth but lacks sustained momentum. With three months until resolution via leaderboard ELO consensus, traders eye potential Claude 5 previews or Gemini iterations as key catalysts amid intensifying lab competition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 65.5%
Google 24%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.4%
$2,909,545 Vol.
$2,909,545 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
66%
24%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 65.5%
Google 24%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.4%
$2,909,545 Vol.
$2,909,545 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$570,155 Vol.
66%
$317,251 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$103,794 Vol.
8%
xAI
$848,062 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$210,891 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$171,672 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$112,636 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$292,877 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$125,244 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$156,962 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 65.5% implied probability for the leading AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its February 2026 release. The model's thinking variant and base version occupy the first and second positions, showcasing superior performance in coding, reasoning, and open-ended tasks over rivals, bolstered by Anthropic's focus on agentic capabilities and safety-aligned scaling. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, launched mid-February, trails closely in third at 23.5% odds, buoyed by advances in multimodal reasoning and efficiency. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants linger lower amid incremental updates, while xAI's Grok-4.20 beta ranks fourth but lacks sustained momentum. With three months until resolution via leaderboard ELO consensus, traders eye potential Claude 5 previews or Gemini iterations as key catalysts amid intensifying lab competition.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,909,545End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 65.5% implied probability for the leading AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its February 2026 release. The model's thinking variant and base version occupy the first and second positions, showcasing superior performance in coding, reasoning, and open-ended tasks over rivals, bolstered by Anthropic's focus on agentic capabilities and safety-aligned scaling. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, launched mid-February, trails closely in third at 23.5% odds, buoyed by advances in multimodal reasoning and efficiency. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants linger lower amid incremental updates, while xAI's Grok-4.20 beta ranks fourth but lacks sustained momentum. With three months until resolution via leaderboard ELO consensus, traders eye potential Claude 5 previews or Gemini iterations as key catalysts amid intensifying lab competition.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,909,545End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 65.5% implied probability for the leading AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its February 2026 release. The model's thinking variant and base version occupy the first and second positions, showcasing superior performance in coding, reasoning, and open-ended tasks over rivals, bolstered by Anthropic's focus on agentic capabilities and safety-aligned scaling. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, launched mid-February, trails closely in third at 23.5% odds, buoyed by advances in multimodal reasoning and efficiency. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants linger lower amid incremental updates, while xAI's Grok-4.20 beta ranks fourth but lacks sustained momentum. With three months until resolution via leaderboard ELO consensus, traders eye potential Claude 5 previews or Gemini iterations as key catalysts amid intensifying lab competition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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