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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Hungary PM 91%

Starmer - UK PM 3.0%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 2.4%

Takaichi - Japan PM <1%

Polymarket

$4,959,948 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM 91%

Starmer - UK PM 3.0%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 2.4%

Takaichi - Japan PM <1%

Polymarket

$4,959,948 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM

$89,565 Vol.

91%

Starmer - UK PM

$646,335 Vol.

3%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$108,070 Vol.

2%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$404,081 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$177,436 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$285,703 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$79,652 Vol.

<1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$1,067,694 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$95,624 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$133,081 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$136,534 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$413,090 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$120,254 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - France PM

$141,099 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$80,470 Vol.

<1%

Petro - Colombia President

$97,363 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$77,445 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$123,775 Vol.

<1%

None before 2027

$77,596 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$85,839 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$79,310 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$94,783 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$161,745 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$72,351 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$111,051 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 delivered a landslide defeat to incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party, which lost its supermajority to opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza party amid record turnout, prompting Orbán's immediate concession after 16 years in power. Traders reflect this in a 91% implied probability for Orbán as the next listed leader permanently out of office before 2027—defined strictly as replacement beyond any caretaker role, expected with the new National Assembly convening by mid-May and government formation typically taking 40-55 days. No comparable catalysts threaten rivals like Starmer or Díaz-Canel soon, cementing the consensus. Challenges could arise from delayed transition amid disputes or sudden snap elections elsewhere.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,959,948
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 delivered a landslide defeat to incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party, which lost its supermajority to opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza party amid record turnout, prompting Orbán's immediate concession after 16 years in power. Traders reflect this in a 91% implied probability for Orbán as the next listed leader permanently out of office before 2027—defined strictly as replacement beyond any caretaker role, expected with the new National Assembly convening by mid-May and government formation typically taking 40-55 days. No comparable catalysts threaten rivals like Starmer or Díaz-Canel soon, cementing the consensus. Challenges could arise from delayed transition amid disputes or sudden snap elections elsewhere.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,959,948
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 91%, followed by "Starmer - UK PM" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027?" has generated $5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Starmer - UK PM" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.