Economy·Economic Policy

Swiss National Bank decision in March?

Economy·Economic Policy

Swiss National Bank decision in March?

No Change 100.0%

Decrease <1%

Increase <1%

$26,473 Vol.

$26,473 Vol.

Mar 19, 2026

Decrease

$17,018 Vol.

No

No Change

$9,454 Vol.

Yes

Increase

$0 Vol.

No

No Change 100.0%

Decrease <1%

Increase <1%

$26,473 Vol.

$26,473 Vol.

Mar 19, 2026

Decrease

$17,018 Vol.

No

No Change

$9,454 Vol.

Yes

Increase

$0 Vol.

No

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to issue a press release for its in March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment, including a decision on the SNB Policy Rate, on March 19, 2026 (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market will resolve according to the change in the upper bound of the SNB Policy Rate as a result of the decision of this assessment versus the level it was prior to the SNB March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Swiss National Bank released after its March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment (https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Swiss National Banks's press release for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no SNB policy rate decision is issued by the end date of their next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 100% implied probability for the Swiss National Bank to hold its policy rate steady at the March 20 meeting, driven by persistently low inflation within the 0-2% target range—January CPI rose just 0.4% year-over-year—and the SNB's explicit December guidance signaling a pause after aggressive 2024 cuts to 1%. This trader consensus, backed by substantial real-money positioning, aligns with subdued economic growth, a resilient Swiss franc curbing import inflation, and synchronized easing from the ECB and Fed reducing rate divergence pressures. Realistic challenges include an upside CPI surprise above 1% or global risk-off flows weakening the CHF, potentially prompting a cut, though precedent suggests the SNB prioritizes franc stability amid low volatility.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 19, 2026, 11:57 AM UTC

Beware of external links.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Swiss National Bank decision in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Change" at 100%, followed by "Decrease" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Swiss National Bank decision in March?" has generated $26.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Swiss National Bank decision in March?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Swiss National Bank decision in March?" is "No Change" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Decrease" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Swiss National Bank decision in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Swiss National Bank decision in March?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $26.5K traded on “Swiss National Bank decision in March?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "No Change" in the "Swiss National Bank decision in March?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "No Change" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Swiss National Bank decision in March?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

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