Market icon

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Market icon

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

$104,333 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$104,333 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$68,500 Vol.

5%

December 31, 2026

$35,834 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a slim 5% chance of Pedro Sánchez ceasing to serve as Spain's prime minister by June 30, 2026, rising to 23% by year-end, reflecting his resilience leading a fragile minority PSOE government reliant on left-wing coalitions amid persistent opposition pressure. Recent PSOE seat gains in the March 15 Castilla y León regional elections defied polls, fueled by Sánchez's vocal anti-Trump, anti-war stance on U.S.-Israel actions, bolstering progressive support despite corruption scandals involving his wife, brother, and ex-ministers facing trials through June. No active no-confidence motion or snap election call exists, with general elections due by August 2027, though coalition fractures or judicial escalations could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$104,333
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a slim 5% chance of Pedro Sánchez ceasing to serve as Spain's prime minister by June 30, 2026, rising to 23% by year-end, reflecting his resilience leading a fragile minority PSOE government reliant on left-wing coalitions amid persistent opposition pressure. Recent PSOE seat gains in the March 15 Castilla y León regional elections defied polls, fueled by Sánchez's vocal anti-Trump, anti-war stance on U.S.-Israel actions, bolstering progressive support despite corruption scandals involving his wife, brother, and ex-ministers facing trials through June. No active no-confidence motion or snap election call exists, with general elections due by August 2027, though coalition fractures or judicial escalations could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$104,333
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 23%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?" has generated $104.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.