Incumbent Rep. Troy Downing's unopposed Republican primary and dominant fundraising—$1.6 million raised versus under $25,000 combined for leading Democratic contenders—anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP win in solidly Republican MT-02, rated Safe R by forecasters with an R+15 partisan lean. Recent FEC reports through March underscore Democrats' resource struggles, exacerbated by Jonathan Windy Boy's unofficial withdrawal from the June 2 Democratic primary, leaving Sam Lux and Brian Miller to compete for a long-shot general election bid against Downing, Independent Michael Eisenhauer, and Libertarian Patrick McCracken. Scenarios like a major scandal, incumbent health issues, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, though historical midterm patterns in safe districts favor continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,411 Vol.
93%
民主党
$2,914 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Downing's unopposed Republican primary and dominant fundraising—$1.6 million raised versus under $25,000 combined for leading Democratic contenders—anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP win in solidly Republican MT-02, rated Safe R by forecasters with an R+15 partisan lean. Recent FEC reports through March underscore Democrats' resource struggles, exacerbated by Jonathan Windy Boy's unofficial withdrawal from the June 2 Democratic primary, leaving Sam Lux and Brian Miller to compete for a long-shot general election bid against Downing, Independent Michael Eisenhauer, and Libertarian Patrick McCracken. Scenarios like a major scandal, incumbent health issues, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, though historical midterm patterns in safe districts favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$9,324終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Downing's unopposed Republican primary and dominant fundraising—$1.6 million raised versus under $25,000 combined for leading Democratic contenders—anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP win in solidly Republican MT-02, rated Safe R by forecasters with an R+15 partisan lean. Recent FEC reports through March underscore Democrats' resource struggles, exacerbated by Jonathan Windy Boy's unofficial withdrawal from the June 2 Democratic primary, leaving Sam Lux and Brian Miller to compete for a long-shot general election bid against Downing, Independent Michael Eisenhauer, and Libertarian Patrick McCracken. Scenarios like a major scandal, incumbent health issues, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, though historical midterm patterns in safe districts favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,324終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Troy Downing's unopposed Republican primary and dominant fundraising—$1.6 million raised versus under $25,000 combined for leading Democratic contenders—anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP win in solidly Republican MT-02, rated Safe R by forecasters with an R+15 partisan lean. Recent FEC reports through March underscore Democrats' resource struggles, exacerbated by Jonathan Windy Boy's unofficial withdrawal from the June 2 Democratic primary, leaving Sam Lux and Brian Miller to compete for a long-shot general election bid against Downing, Independent Michael Eisenhauer, and Libertarian Patrick McCracken. Scenarios like a major scandal, incumbent health issues, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, though historical midterm patterns in safe districts favor continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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