Incumbent Republican Troy Downing's commanding lead in trader consensus for Montana's 2nd Congressional District stems from his dominant 2024 victory—securing 66% against a Democratic opponent in a district with an R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index, where Donald Trump won 63% last cycle. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican, reflecting the eastern Montana seat's deep-red history spanning Billings and Great Falls. Recent Democratic primary filings post-March 4 deadline yielded a fragmented field of Sam Lux, Brian Miller, and Jonathan Windy Boy, with no unified challenger emerging. The June 2 open primary looms, but Downing faces no notable Republican opposition. Upsets would require a scandal, national anti-Republican midterm wave, or unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout in this low-competition battleground.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
92%
民主党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$0 Vol.
92%
民主党
$2,442 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing's commanding lead in trader consensus for Montana's 2nd Congressional District stems from his dominant 2024 victory—securing 66% against a Democratic opponent in a district with an R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index, where Donald Trump won 63% last cycle. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican, reflecting the eastern Montana seat's deep-red history spanning Billings and Great Falls. Recent Democratic primary filings post-March 4 deadline yielded a fragmented field of Sam Lux, Brian Miller, and Jonathan Windy Boy, with no unified challenger emerging. The June 2 open primary looms, but Downing faces no notable Republican opposition. Upsets would require a scandal, national anti-Republican midterm wave, or unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout in this low-competition battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$2,442終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing's commanding lead in trader consensus for Montana's 2nd Congressional District stems from his dominant 2024 victory—securing 66% against a Democratic opponent in a district with an R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index, where Donald Trump won 63% last cycle. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican, reflecting the eastern Montana seat's deep-red history spanning Billings and Great Falls. Recent Democratic primary filings post-March 4 deadline yielded a fragmented field of Sam Lux, Brian Miller, and Jonathan Windy Boy, with no unified challenger emerging. The June 2 open primary looms, but Downing faces no notable Republican opposition. Upsets would require a scandal, national anti-Republican midterm wave, or unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout in this low-competition battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,442終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Troy Downing's commanding lead in trader consensus for Montana's 2nd Congressional District stems from his dominant 2024 victory—securing 66% against a Democratic opponent in a district with an R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index, where Donald Trump won 63% last cycle. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican, reflecting the eastern Montana seat's deep-red history spanning Billings and Great Falls. Recent Democratic primary filings post-March 4 deadline yielded a fragmented field of Sam Lux, Brian Miller, and Jonathan Windy Boy, with no unified challenger emerging. The June 2 open primary looms, but Downing faces no notable Republican opposition. Upsets would require a scandal, national anti-Republican midterm wave, or unexpectedly strong Democratic turnout in this low-competition battleground.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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