Matt Little secured the Democratic nomination in the open MN-02 seat after Angie Craig’s Senate bid, winning a competitive August 2026 primary with endorsements from the state DFL and progressive organizations. Multiple forecasters rate the general election as Likely Democratic, citing the district’s recent partisan shift and Little’s polling lead over Republican state Sen. Eric Pratt, who ran unopposed in his primary. Recent September polling showed Little ahead by double digits in the suburban Twin Cities district. Trader consensus assigns Little an overwhelming implied probability, reflecting the seat’s structural advantages for Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Republican turnout, major national developments shifting voter sentiment, or late campaign developments affecting either candidate’s support before the November 3 election.