Incumbent Rep. Angie Craig's departure to pursue a U.S. Senate bid opened Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, a D+3 partisan voter index seat historically held by Democrats, yet trader consensus reflects strong confidence in a Democratic hold at 83% implied probability. Leading Democratic primary contenders Matt Little and Matt Klein dominate fundraising with over $300,000 cash on hand each as of late 2025, outpacing Republicans Tyler Kistner—a prior challenger—and state Sen. Eric Pratt. Absent district-specific polls, statewide Emerson surveying from February showed Democratic leads in generic ballots, aligning with Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. High DFL caucus turnout in early February underscores party enthusiasm ahead of the August 11 primaries and November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
83%
共和党
16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
83%
共和党
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Angie Craig's departure to pursue a U.S. Senate bid opened Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, a D+3 partisan voter index seat historically held by Democrats, yet trader consensus reflects strong confidence in a Democratic hold at 83% implied probability. Leading Democratic primary contenders Matt Little and Matt Klein dominate fundraising with over $300,000 cash on hand each as of late 2025, outpacing Republicans Tyler Kistner—a prior challenger—and state Sen. Eric Pratt. Absent district-specific polls, statewide Emerson surveying from February showed Democratic leads in generic ballots, aligning with Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. High DFL caucus turnout in early February underscores party enthusiasm ahead of the August 11 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Angie Craig's departure to pursue a U.S. Senate bid opened Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, a D+3 partisan voter index seat historically held by Democrats, yet trader consensus reflects strong confidence in a Democratic hold at 83% implied probability. Leading Democratic primary contenders Matt Little and Matt Klein dominate fundraising with over $300,000 cash on hand each as of late 2025, outpacing Republicans Tyler Kistner—a prior challenger—and state Sen. Eric Pratt. Absent district-specific polls, statewide Emerson surveying from February showed Democratic leads in generic ballots, aligning with Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. High DFL caucus turnout in early February underscores party enthusiasm ahead of the August 11 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Angie Craig's departure to pursue a U.S. Senate bid opened Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, a D+3 partisan voter index seat historically held by Democrats, yet trader consensus reflects strong confidence in a Democratic hold at 83% implied probability. Leading Democratic primary contenders Matt Little and Matt Klein dominate fundraising with over $300,000 cash on hand each as of late 2025, outpacing Republicans Tyler Kistner—a prior challenger—and state Sen. Eric Pratt. Absent district-specific polls, statewide Emerson surveying from February showed Democratic leads in generic ballots, aligning with Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. High DFL caucus turnout in early February underscores party enthusiasm ahead of the August 11 primaries and November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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