Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar's stronghold in Arizona's 9th Congressional District, rated R+15 by Cook PVI and Solid Republican across forecasters, drives trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 87.5%, reflecting his 65% victory margin in 2024 and consistent dominance since 2010. The March 23 candidate filing deadline confirmed a weak Democratic primary field—Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward—with Sterbinsky's $67,500 cash on hand trailing Gosar's $155,600, underscoring limited opposition resources. Gosar faces nominal Republican primary challenger Teresa Volesky ahead of the July 21 primaries, reinforcing the seat's safe status barring unforeseen scandals or national midterm waves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
88%
民主党
11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$512 Vol.
88%
民主党
$779 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar's stronghold in Arizona's 9th Congressional District, rated R+15 by Cook PVI and Solid Republican across forecasters, drives trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 87.5%, reflecting his 65% victory margin in 2024 and consistent dominance since 2010. The March 23 candidate filing deadline confirmed a weak Democratic primary field—Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward—with Sterbinsky's $67,500 cash on hand trailing Gosar's $155,600, underscoring limited opposition resources. Gosar faces nominal Republican primary challenger Teresa Volesky ahead of the July 21 primaries, reinforcing the seat's safe status barring unforeseen scandals or national midterm waves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$1,291終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar's stronghold in Arizona's 9th Congressional District, rated R+15 by Cook PVI and Solid Republican across forecasters, drives trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 87.5%, reflecting his 65% victory margin in 2024 and consistent dominance since 2010. The March 23 candidate filing deadline confirmed a weak Democratic primary field—Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward—with Sterbinsky's $67,500 cash on hand trailing Gosar's $155,600, underscoring limited opposition resources. Gosar faces nominal Republican primary challenger Teresa Volesky ahead of the July 21 primaries, reinforcing the seat's safe status barring unforeseen scandals or national midterm waves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,291終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar's stronghold in Arizona's 9th Congressional District, rated R+15 by Cook PVI and Solid Republican across forecasters, drives trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 87.5%, reflecting his 65% victory margin in 2024 and consistent dominance since 2010. The March 23 candidate filing deadline confirmed a weak Democratic primary field—Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward—with Sterbinsky's $67,500 cash on hand trailing Gosar's $155,600, underscoring limited opposition resources. Gosar faces nominal Republican primary challenger Teresa Volesky ahead of the July 21 primaries, reinforcing the seat's safe status barring unforeseen scandals or national midterm waves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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