Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus Chair, commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability of victory in California's 33rd Congressional District due to the seat's Solid Democratic Cook rating, D+7 partisan voting index, and his history of double-digit reelection margins, including 58.8% over Republican Tom Herman in 2024. With early voting underway for the June 2 top-two primary—where Aguilar faces token Democratic opposition and a fragmented Republican field including Herman—the general election on November 3 appears structurally safe for Democrats absent a primary upset sending two Democrats through or a national GOP wave. Low Republican odds at 6.5% reflect no credible challenger emergence, though scandals, health issues, or depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,772 Vol.
93%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus Chair, commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability of victory in California's 33rd Congressional District due to the seat's Solid Democratic Cook rating, D+7 partisan voting index, and his history of double-digit reelection margins, including 58.8% over Republican Tom Herman in 2024. With early voting underway for the June 2 top-two primary—where Aguilar faces token Democratic opposition and a fragmented Republican field including Herman—the general election on November 3 appears structurally safe for Democrats absent a primary upset sending two Democrats through or a national GOP wave. Low Republican odds at 6.5% reflect no credible challenger emergence, though scandals, health issues, or depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$2,772終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus Chair, commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability of victory in California's 33rd Congressional District due to the seat's Solid Democratic Cook rating, D+7 partisan voting index, and his history of double-digit reelection margins, including 58.8% over Republican Tom Herman in 2024. With early voting underway for the June 2 top-two primary—where Aguilar faces token Democratic opposition and a fragmented Republican field including Herman—the general election on November 3 appears structurally safe for Democrats absent a primary upset sending two Democrats through or a national GOP wave. Low Republican odds at 6.5% reflect no credible challenger emergence, though scandals, health issues, or depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,772終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus Chair, commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability of victory in California's 33rd Congressional District due to the seat's Solid Democratic Cook rating, D+7 partisan voting index, and his history of double-digit reelection margins, including 58.8% over Republican Tom Herman in 2024. With early voting underway for the June 2 top-two primary—where Aguilar faces token Democratic opposition and a fragmented Republican field including Herman—the general election on November 3 appears structurally safe for Democrats absent a primary upset sending two Democrats through or a national GOP wave. Low Republican odds at 6.5% reflect no credible challenger emergence, though scandals, health issues, or depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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