Trader sentiment for Milan's highest temperature on March 26 remains tightly clustered around 8–13°C, driven by ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing a mean high near 11°C amid notable spread from model physics divergences. Recent 00Z runs indicate ECMWF favoring 10–12°C at Milano Linate airport (the resolution site), while GFS leans cooler at 9–11°C due to persistent northerly flow channeling cooler continental air. Differentiating factors include the jet stream's ridge-trough pattern uncertainty—if a weak front stalls north, 13°C becomes viable; early passage favors 8–9°C. Historical late-March averages hover at 12–13°C, but this year's cooler anomaly tilts odds lower, with traders pricing ~20% volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Milan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 26?
13°C 21%
11°C 19%
12°C 18%
8°C or below 17%
8°C or below
17%
9°C
17%
10°C
16%
11°C
19%
12°C
18%
13°C
21%
14°C
16%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
12%
18°C or higher
16%
13°C 21%
11°C 19%
12°C 18%
8°C or below 17%
8°C or below
17%
9°C
17%
10°C
16%
11°C
19%
12°C
18%
13°C
21%
14°C
16%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
12%
18°C or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Milan's highest temperature on March 26 remains tightly clustered around 8–13°C, driven by ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing a mean high near 11°C amid notable spread from model physics divergences. Recent 00Z runs indicate ECMWF favoring 10–12°C at Milano Linate airport (the resolution site), while GFS leans cooler at 9–11°C due to persistent northerly flow channeling cooler continental air. Differentiating factors include the jet stream's ridge-trough pattern uncertainty—if a weak front stalls north, 13°C becomes viable; early passage favors 8–9°C. Historical late-March averages hover at 12–13°C, but this year's cooler anomaly tilts odds lower, with traders pricing ~20% volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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