Trader consensus favors a Taipei high of 27°C at 36.5% implied probability, driven by Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C on March 23 amid a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and boosting insolation. March historical averages hover around 23°C, but recent observations—March 22 highs near 26°C—and lingering El Niño warmth have elevated odds for 26-28°C outcomes, outpacing cooler bets. Urban heat island effects amplify city readings, while model spread introduces minor uncertainty from potential sea breeze moderation; final CWA updates expected within hours could refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
24°C 30%
28°C 29%
26°C 26%
27°C 26%
22°C or below
13%
23°C
3%
24°C
18%
25°C
20%
26°C
26%
27°C
36%
28°C
22%
29°C
14%
30°C
13%
31°C
8%
32°C or higher
3%
24°C 30%
28°C 29%
26°C 26%
27°C 26%
22°C or below
13%
23°C
3%
24°C
18%
25°C
20%
26°C
26%
27°C
36%
28°C
22%
29°C
14%
30°C
13%
31°C
8%
32°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Taipei high of 27°C at 36.5% implied probability, driven by Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C on March 23 amid a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and boosting insolation. March historical averages hover around 23°C, but recent observations—March 22 highs near 26°C—and lingering El Niño warmth have elevated odds for 26-28°C outcomes, outpacing cooler bets. Urban heat island effects amplify city readings, while model spread introduces minor uncertainty from potential sea breeze moderation; final CWA updates expected within hours could refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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