Ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a warm March 22 in Taipei, with implied probabilities peaking at 25.5% for 29°C or higher amid projections clustering 27-29°C. This reflects strengthening subtropical high pressure and southerly flows enhancing daytime heating, contrasting historical March averages of 23-25°C from Central Weather Administration records. Tight odds for 26°C (17%) and 25°C (16.5%) stem from model spread over afternoon cloudiness and urban sea breezes, which cap peaks via evaporative cooling. Recent runs show upside bias from low wind shear, but convective showers could pivot outcomes—monitor CWA's next update for threshold-crossing clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
26°C 26%
29°C or higher 26%
25°C 17%
27°C 15%
19°C or below
10%
20°C
10%
21°C
8%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C
9%
25°C
17%
26°C
26%
27°C
15%
28°C
12%
29°C or higher
26%
26°C 26%
29°C or higher 26%
25°C 17%
27°C 15%
19°C or below
10%
20°C
10%
21°C
8%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C
9%
25°C
17%
26°C
26%
27°C
15%
28°C
12%
29°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a warm March 22 in Taipei, with implied probabilities peaking at 25.5% for 29°C or higher amid projections clustering 27-29°C. This reflects strengthening subtropical high pressure and southerly flows enhancing daytime heating, contrasting historical March averages of 23-25°C from Central Weather Administration records. Tight odds for 26°C (17%) and 25°C (16.5%) stem from model spread over afternoon cloudiness and urban sea breezes, which cap peaks via evaporative cooling. Recent runs show upside bias from low wind shear, but convective showers could pivot outcomes—monitor CWA's next update for threshold-crossing clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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