Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the tight race among 12–14°C outcomes for Milan's March 22 high temperature, with model consensus clustering around 13°C amid mild high-pressure influence over northern Italy. Trader sentiment splits due to ensemble spread: cooler 12°C scenarios from persistent low cloud decks in boundary layer simulations, versus 14°C upside if diurnal mixing and föhn-like downslope flow clear skies midday. Historical March baselines average 12.5°C at Linate Airport, but recent runs indicate 1–2°C above normal from southerly advection. Resolution hinges on final 00Z updates, underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty in mesoscale features.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Milan le 22 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Milan le 22 mars ?
13°C 32%
12°C 27%
14°C 25%
11°C 7.8%
$33,627 Vol.
$33,627 Vol.
8°C ou moins
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
8%
12°C
27%
13°C
32%
14°C
25%
15°C
5%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C ou plus
1%
13°C 32%
12°C 27%
14°C 25%
11°C 7.8%
$33,627 Vol.
$33,627 Vol.
8°C ou moins
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
8%
12°C
27%
13°C
32%
14°C
25%
15°C
5%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C ou plus
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the tight race among 12–14°C outcomes for Milan's March 22 high temperature, with model consensus clustering around 13°C amid mild high-pressure influence over northern Italy. Trader sentiment splits due to ensemble spread: cooler 12°C scenarios from persistent low cloud decks in boundary layer simulations, versus 14°C upside if diurnal mixing and föhn-like downslope flow clear skies midday. Historical March baselines average 12.5°C at Linate Airport, but recent runs indicate 1–2°C above normal from southerly advection. Resolution hinges on final 00Z updates, underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty in mesoscale features.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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