Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a NYC high of 56-57°F on March 21, driven by the National Weather Service's latest point forecast of 57°F and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models clustering means around 55-58°F amid persistent cool northerly flow. Historical March 21 averages hover near 52°F, but current synoptic patterns—featuring a deep upper trough over the Northeast—reinforce this positioning, with verified soundings and satellite imagery confirming stable cool air mass advection. Realistic challenges include an unexpected ridge amplification pushing 60°F+ via downslope warming (low odds per 00Z runs) or a stalled frontal boundary delaying recovery, potentially dipping to 50s low-end; monitor 12Z updates for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in NYC on March 21?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 21?
56-57°F 99.8%
60°F or higher <1%
58-59°F <1%
$234,866 Vol.
$234,866 Vol.
56-57°F
100%
58-59°F
<1%
60°F or higher
<1%
56-57°F 99.8%
60°F or higher <1%
58-59°F <1%
$234,866 Vol.
$234,866 Vol.
56-57°F
100%
58-59°F
<1%
60°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a NYC high of 56-57°F on March 21, driven by the National Weather Service's latest point forecast of 57°F and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models clustering means around 55-58°F amid persistent cool northerly flow. Historical March 21 averages hover near 52°F, but current synoptic patterns—featuring a deep upper trough over the Northeast—reinforce this positioning, with verified soundings and satellite imagery confirming stable cool air mass advection. Realistic challenges include an unexpected ridge amplification pushing 60°F+ via downslope warming (low odds per 00Z runs) or a stalled frontal boundary delaying recovery, potentially dipping to 50s low-end; monitor 12Z updates for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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