Trader sentiment for Seoul's highest temperature on March 22 clusters tightly around 10-12°C, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs in this narrow band amid mild spring advection of continental air. Leading probabilities differentiate subtly: 10°C edges ahead due to anticipated partial cloud cover suppressing peaks, while 12°C gains from optimistic clear-sky scenarios and urban heat island amplification in Seoul; 11°C splits the difference per model means. Historical March 22 averages hover near 11°C, but recent model runs show low spread (σ ≈ 1.5°C), tempered by lingering Siberian high influence and minimal cold front risk, yielding 2.3% odds below 4°C. Upcoming KMA updates at 5 PM KST could shift the balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
10°C 26%
12°C 25%
11°C 24%
8°C 19%
4°C or below
2%
5°C
8%
6°C
11%
7°C
11%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
26%
11°C
24%
12°C
25%
13°C
9%
14°C or higher
12%
10°C 26%
12°C 25%
11°C 24%
8°C 19%
4°C or below
2%
5°C
8%
6°C
11%
7°C
11%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
26%
11°C
24%
12°C
25%
13°C
9%
14°C or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Seoul's highest temperature on March 22 clusters tightly around 10-12°C, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs in this narrow band amid mild spring advection of continental air. Leading probabilities differentiate subtly: 10°C edges ahead due to anticipated partial cloud cover suppressing peaks, while 12°C gains from optimistic clear-sky scenarios and urban heat island amplification in Seoul; 11°C splits the difference per model means. Historical March 22 averages hover near 11°C, but recent model runs show low spread (σ ≈ 1.5°C), tempered by lingering Siberian high influence and minimal cold front risk, yielding 2.3% odds below 4°C. Upcoming KMA updates at 5 PM KST could shift the balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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