Ensemble forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models like GFS and ECMWF project Lucknow's March 22 maximum temperature around 34-36°C, fueling trader support for those bins at 15-17% each amid the closely contested odds. The 28% implied probability for 30°C or below reflects lingering effects of recent western disturbances bringing cloud cover and cooler northerly winds, suppressing daytime heating, while 23.5% for 40°C or higher anticipates rapid warming under clear skies and low humidity typical of pre-monsoon heat buildup. Differentiating factors include soil moisture from prior light rains favoring moderation versus adiabatic compression in high-pressure ridges pushing extremes, with historical March maxima averaging 32-34°C but showing bimodal tails from such regime shifts. Traders await IMD's evening update for resolution clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
31°C 19%
32°C 18%
30°C or below 18%
33°C 9%
30°C or below
32%
31°C
19%
32°C
18%
33°C
9%
34°C
9%
35°C
8%
36°C
8%
37°C
8%
38°C
8%
39°C
8%
40°C or higher
8%
31°C 19%
32°C 18%
30°C or below 18%
33°C 9%
30°C or below
32%
31°C
19%
32°C
18%
33°C
9%
34°C
9%
35°C
8%
36°C
8%
37°C
8%
38°C
8%
39°C
8%
40°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models like GFS and ECMWF project Lucknow's March 22 maximum temperature around 34-36°C, fueling trader support for those bins at 15-17% each amid the closely contested odds. The 28% implied probability for 30°C or below reflects lingering effects of recent western disturbances bringing cloud cover and cooler northerly winds, suppressing daytime heating, while 23.5% for 40°C or higher anticipates rapid warming under clear skies and low humidity typical of pre-monsoon heat buildup. Differentiating factors include soil moisture from prior light rains favoring moderation versus adiabatic compression in high-pressure ridges pushing extremes, with historical March maxima averaging 32-34°C but showing bimodal tails from such regime shifts. Traders await IMD's evening update for resolution clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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