Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward Ankara's March 22 high temperature clustering at 11-13°C, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 31.5% for 11°C, 27.5% each for 12°C and 13°C, reflecting model spread of just 1-2°C amid low-confidence boundary layer conditions. Cool northerly winds and partial cloud cover from a lingering trough differentiate these outcomes, capping peaks below seasonal norms of 13-14°C while historical March 22 data shows ±2°C variability. Traders await MGM's 48-hour update tomorrow, as diurnal heating and any frontal timing shifts could nudge the maximum by 1°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
11°C 32%
12°C 27%
13°C 24%
9°C 11%
6°C or below
1%
7°C
6%
8°C
5%
9°C
11%
10°C
6%
11°C
32%
12°C
27%
13°C
24%
14°C
8%
15°C
8%
16°C or higher
5%
11°C 32%
12°C 27%
13°C 24%
9°C 11%
6°C or below
1%
7°C
6%
8°C
5%
9°C
11%
10°C
6%
11°C
32%
12°C
27%
13°C
24%
14°C
8%
15°C
8%
16°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward Ankara's March 22 high temperature clustering at 11-13°C, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 31.5% for 11°C, 27.5% each for 12°C and 13°C, reflecting model spread of just 1-2°C amid low-confidence boundary layer conditions. Cool northerly winds and partial cloud cover from a lingering trough differentiate these outcomes, capping peaks below seasonal norms of 13-14°C while historical March 22 data shows ±2°C variability. Traders await MGM's 48-hour update tomorrow, as diurnal heating and any frontal timing shifts could nudge the maximum by 1°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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