Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France models drive trader consensus toward a Paris high of 15°C on March 22, with 43% implied probability, as a persistent high-pressure ridge funnels mild southerly airflow into northern France, boosting temperatures above the March climatological average of 11-12°C. Supporting 14°C (22%) and 16°C (22.5%) as close contenders, recent 00Z GFS and ICON updates on March 21 refined peak estimates to 14-16°C amid light winds and partial cloud cover, diminishing odds for extremes like 18°C+ (1.1%) or sub-13°C (under 5%). Official observations from stations like Paris-Montsouris will resolve the market, with urban heat island effects potentially nudging the official high slightly higher.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Paris on March 22?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 22?
15°C 44%
14°C 24%
16°C 22%
17°C 3.5%
$33,826 Vol.
$33,826 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
24%
15°C
44%
16°C
22%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
1%
15°C 44%
14°C 24%
16°C 22%
17°C 3.5%
$33,826 Vol.
$33,826 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
24%
15°C
44%
16°C
22%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo-France models drive trader consensus toward a Paris high of 15°C on March 22, with 43% implied probability, as a persistent high-pressure ridge funnels mild southerly airflow into northern France, boosting temperatures above the March climatological average of 11-12°C. Supporting 14°C (22%) and 16°C (22.5%) as close contenders, recent 00Z GFS and ICON updates on March 21 refined peak estimates to 14-16°C amid light winds and partial cloud cover, diminishing odds for extremes like 18°C+ (1.1%) or sub-13°C (under 5%). Official observations from stations like Paris-Montsouris will resolve the market, with urban heat island effects potentially nudging the official high slightly higher.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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