Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a Madrid high of 20-22°C on March 25, fueling the neck-and-neck trader odds in that range, with 21°C and 22°C at 17.5% each. AEMET's latest outlook aligns closely, projecting 20-23°C amid a mild southerly airflow and high pressure ridge over Iberia, though slight model divergence introduces uncertainty—warmer runs hit 24°C+ via föhn-like effects, while cooler ensembles dip to 18-19°C if Atlantic clouds intrude. Historical March 25 averages hover at 17-18°C, but this year's warmer spring baseline and minimal cold front risk keep sub-20°C odds subdued at under 16%, reflecting low precipitation probabilities per satellite-derived moisture fields. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on March 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 25?
21°C 18%
22°C 18%
20°C 17%
24°C or higher 17%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
11%
16°C
13%
17°C
16%
18°C
16%
19°C
16%
20°C
17%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
17%
24°C or higher
17%
21°C 18%
22°C 18%
20°C 17%
24°C or higher 17%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
11%
16°C
13%
17°C
16%
18°C
16%
19°C
16%
20°C
17%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
17%
24°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a Madrid high of 20-22°C on March 25, fueling the neck-and-neck trader odds in that range, with 21°C and 22°C at 17.5% each. AEMET's latest outlook aligns closely, projecting 20-23°C amid a mild southerly airflow and high pressure ridge over Iberia, though slight model divergence introduces uncertainty—warmer runs hit 24°C+ via föhn-like effects, while cooler ensembles dip to 18-19°C if Atlantic clouds intrude. Historical March 25 averages hover at 17-18°C, but this year's warmer spring baseline and minimal cold front risk keep sub-20°C odds subdued at under 16%, reflecting low precipitation probabilities per satellite-derived moisture fields. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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