Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 16–19°C for Madrid's highest temperature on March 24, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a consensus peak in this range amid mild high-pressure dominance over Iberia. AEMET's official outlook corroborates this, projecting 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that cap daytime heating, while urban heat island effects in Madrid slightly favor warmer outcomes. Recent model runs indicate a narrowing spread from earlier volatility, with 17°C edging ahead due to below-average soil moisture reducing evaporative cooling; historical late-March averages of 17°C align closely, though jet stream undulations could nudge toward 19°C if ridging strengthens. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
18°C 33%
19°C 33%
17°C 27%
16°C 26%
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
12%
16°C
26%
17°C
27%
18°C
25%
19°C
26%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
8%
18°C 33%
19°C 33%
17°C 27%
16°C 26%
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
12%
16°C
26%
17°C
27%
18°C
25%
19°C
26%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 16–19°C for Madrid's highest temperature on March 24, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a consensus peak in this range amid mild high-pressure dominance over Iberia. AEMET's official outlook corroborates this, projecting 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that cap daytime heating, while urban heat island effects in Madrid slightly favor warmer outcomes. Recent model runs indicate a narrowing spread from earlier volatility, with 17°C edging ahead due to below-average soil moisture reducing evaporative cooling; historical late-March averages of 17°C align closely, though jet stream undulations could nudge toward 19°C if ridging strengthens. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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