Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mild highs of 17–19°C (73% combined implied probability) for Chongqing's March 25 maximum temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 17–18°C amid persistent spring anticyclonic conditions and light southerly flows. Differentiating factors include Chongqing's pronounced urban heat island effect, which elevates readings 1–2°C above surrounding rural stations, versus potential suppression from patchy stratocumulus clouds or a weak cold front hinted in 00Z model runs. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows March 25 averages around 18°C with a 2–3°C standard deviation, underscoring the tight odds amid low wind shear and diurnal heating peaks near 1400 local time. Upcoming 12Z updates could shift sentiment if convergence strengthens.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 25?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 25?
17°C 26%
18°C 24%
19°C 23%
20°C 16%
15°C or below
8%
16°C
12%
17°C
26%
18°C
24%
19°C
23%
20°C
16%
21°C
13%
22°C
9%
23°C
6%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
4%
17°C 26%
18°C 24%
19°C 23%
20°C 16%
15°C or below
8%
16°C
12%
17°C
26%
18°C
24%
19°C
23%
20°C
16%
21°C
13%
22°C
9%
23°C
6%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:22 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mild highs of 17–19°C (73% combined implied probability) for Chongqing's March 25 maximum temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 17–18°C amid persistent spring anticyclonic conditions and light southerly flows. Differentiating factors include Chongqing's pronounced urban heat island effect, which elevates readings 1–2°C above surrounding rural stations, versus potential suppression from patchy stratocumulus clouds or a weak cold front hinted in 00Z model runs. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows March 25 averages around 18°C with a 2–3°C standard deviation, underscoring the tight odds amid low wind shear and diurnal heating peaks near 1400 local time. Upcoming 12Z updates could shift sentiment if convergence strengthens.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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