Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Chongqing high of 18°C (38.5%) over 17°C (29.0%), driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration models projecting peak afternoon temperatures in the 17-19°C range amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover evolution—thicker mid-level clouds could cap highs at 17°C by limiting insolation, while clearer breaks favor 18-20°C as implied by 17.5% odds on 20°C. Historical March 23 averages hover at 17.5°C, but this week's warmer air mass advection from the south has nudged models upward, with final resolution hinging on 1200 UTC soundings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 23?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 23?
18°C 31%
17°C 26%
20°C 15%
19°C 12%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
11%
17°C
30%
18°C
36%
19°C
12%
20°C
18%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
18°C 31%
17°C 26%
20°C 15%
19°C 12%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
11%
17°C
30%
18°C
36%
19°C
12%
20°C
18%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Chongqing high of 18°C (38.5%) over 17°C (29.0%), driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration models projecting peak afternoon temperatures in the 17-19°C range amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover evolution—thicker mid-level clouds could cap highs at 17°C by limiting insolation, while clearer breaks favor 18-20°C as implied by 17.5% odds on 20°C. Historical March 23 averages hover at 17.5°C, but this week's warmer air mass advection from the south has nudged models upward, with final resolution hinging on 1200 UTC soundings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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