Trader consensus heavily favors a Shenzhen high of 26°C on March 22, with 47% implied probability, driven by ensemble weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration projecting peaks in the 25-27°C range amid persistent subtropical high pressure and light southerly winds. Historical March data from local stations shows average highs of 24.5°C, but recent observations—24°C on March 20 and 25°C on March 21—align with a warming trend from urban heat island effects and reduced sea breeze influence. Lower odds for 25°C or below reflect minimal cold front risks, while extremes above 28°C remain unlikely per model uncertainty bands, with key updates expected from 00Z GFS runs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
26°C 47%
25°C 30%
27°C 10%
24°C 8.6%
$19,403 Vol.
$19,403 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
9%
25°C
30%
26°C
47%
27°C
10%
28°C
6%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 47%
25°C 30%
27°C 10%
24°C 8.6%
$19,403 Vol.
$19,403 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
9%
25°C
30%
26°C
47%
27°C
10%
28°C
6%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:14 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a Shenzhen high of 26°C on March 22, with 47% implied probability, driven by ensemble weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration projecting peaks in the 25-27°C range amid persistent subtropical high pressure and light southerly winds. Historical March data from local stations shows average highs of 24.5°C, but recent observations—24°C on March 20 and 25°C on March 21—align with a warming trend from urban heat island effects and reduced sea breeze influence. Lower odds for 25°C or below reflect minimal cold front risks, while extremes above 28°C remain unlikely per model uncertainty bands, with key updates expected from 00Z GFS runs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes