Trader consensus favors a high of 6°C or higher in Toronto on March 21 (49.5% implied probability), driven by the latest Environment Canada forecast projecting a daytime maximum of 6°C under mainly cloudy skies with 30% chance of flurries and southwest winds up to 20 km/h. Global models like ECMWF and GFS align closely, showing ensemble means around 5-7°C amid a mild early-spring air mass warmer than the historical average of 4°C. Recent model runs have nudged odds upward from 5°C (20.5%), reflecting reduced cloud cover risks, though lingering uncertainty in boundary layer mixing could trim peaks by 1-2°C if flurries intensify. Historical data underscores rarity of extremes this date, positioning mid-single digits as leading outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Toronto le 21 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Toronto le 21 mars ?
6°C ou plus 50%
5°C 21%
4°C 11%
3°C 10%
$96,687 Vol.
$96,687 Vol.
-4°C ou moins
<1%
-3°C
1%
-2°C
2%
-1°C
2%
0°C
2%
1°C
5%
2°C
3%
3°C
10%
4°C
11%
5°C
21%
6°C ou plus
50%
6°C ou plus 50%
5°C 21%
4°C 11%
3°C 10%
$96,687 Vol.
$96,687 Vol.
-4°C ou moins
<1%
-3°C
1%
-2°C
2%
-1°C
2%
0°C
2%
1°C
5%
2°C
3%
3°C
10%
4°C
11%
5°C
21%
6°C ou plus
50%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a high of 6°C or higher in Toronto on March 21 (49.5% implied probability), driven by the latest Environment Canada forecast projecting a daytime maximum of 6°C under mainly cloudy skies with 30% chance of flurries and southwest winds up to 20 km/h. Global models like ECMWF and GFS align closely, showing ensemble means around 5-7°C amid a mild early-spring air mass warmer than the historical average of 4°C. Recent model runs have nudged odds upward from 5°C (20.5%), reflecting reduced cloud cover risks, though lingering uncertainty in boundary layer mixing could trim peaks by 1-2°C if flurries intensify. Historical data underscores rarity of extremes this date, positioning mid-single digits as leading outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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