Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 17°C (30%) and 18°C (28.5%) as the highest temperature in Wellington on March 21, driven by MetService's latest forecast pinning the daily maximum near 17.5°C amid a southerly airflow moderating coastal highs. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show low spread, with means of 17-18°C, differentiating outcomes through subtle variations in afternoon cloud breaks and sea breeze strength—persistent marine stratus favors 16-17°C, while earlier clearing could nudge to 18-19°C. Historical March data (average high ~19°C) tempers optimism for warmer spikes, as recent La Niña influences have cooled early autumn patterns, with no major heat signals in upper-air analyses. Key watch: tomorrow's 00Z model update for resolution-critical precision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on March 21?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 21?
17°C 30%
18°C 29%
19°C 15%
16°C 14%
$15,696 Vol.
$15,696 Vol.
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
7%
16°C
14%
17°C
30%
18°C
29%
19°C
15%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
2%
17°C 30%
18°C 29%
19°C 15%
16°C 14%
$15,696 Vol.
$15,696 Vol.
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
7%
16°C
14%
17°C
30%
18°C
29%
19°C
15%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 17°C (30%) and 18°C (28.5%) as the highest temperature in Wellington on March 21, driven by MetService's latest forecast pinning the daily maximum near 17.5°C amid a southerly airflow moderating coastal highs. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show low spread, with means of 17-18°C, differentiating outcomes through subtle variations in afternoon cloud breaks and sea breeze strength—persistent marine stratus favors 16-17°C, while earlier clearing could nudge to 18-19°C. Historical March data (average high ~19°C) tempers optimism for warmer spikes, as recent La Niña influences have cooled early autumn patterns, with no major heat signals in upper-air analyses. Key watch: tomorrow's 00Z model update for resolution-critical precision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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