Traders heavily favor Toronto's highest temperature on March 22 at 12°C or below (85% implied probability), driven by Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest forecast predicting a daytime max near 9°C under cloudy skies with possible flurries. A deep trough in the jet stream funnels Arctic air southward, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models that show 80-90% of members below 12°C. Recent observations confirm overnight lows near freezing, matching seasonal norms where March 22 averages 8°C historically. Minimal upper-air warming signals or convective activity in radar data reinforce this cool consensus, with resolution hinging on Pearson International Airport readings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
12°C or below 92%
22°C or higher 14%
15°C 8%
20°C 3%
12°C or below
84%
13°C
11%
14°C
11%
15°C
8%
16°C
8%
17°C
9%
18°C
7%
19°C
3%
20°C
3%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
14%
12°C or below 92%
22°C or higher 14%
15°C 8%
20°C 3%
12°C or below
84%
13°C
11%
14°C
11%
15°C
8%
16°C
8%
17°C
9%
18°C
7%
19°C
3%
20°C
3%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders heavily favor Toronto's highest temperature on March 22 at 12°C or below (85% implied probability), driven by Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest forecast predicting a daytime max near 9°C under cloudy skies with possible flurries. A deep trough in the jet stream funnels Arctic air southward, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models that show 80-90% of members below 12°C. Recent observations confirm overnight lows near freezing, matching seasonal norms where March 22 averages 8°C historically. Minimal upper-air warming signals or convective activity in radar data reinforce this cool consensus, with resolution hinging on Pearson International Airport readings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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