Trader sentiment on São Paulo's highest temperature for March 22 hinges on ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS, which project peaks of 30-31°C amid a persistent heat dome over southeastern Brazil, with INMET issuing heat alerts up to 32°C. The razor-thin split between 30°C (36%) and 31°C (39.5%) reflects uncertainty in afternoon sea breeze timing and convective cloud development, which could suppress peaks by 1°C through evaporative cooling, versus urban heat island amplification pushing toward 31°C. Historical March averages hover at 28°C, but recent days' anomalies—exceeding 33°C—signal elevated risk, though model consensus tempers 32°C+ odds below 15%. Final 12Z runs today may sharpen resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 22?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 22?
31°C 40%
30°C 39%
32°C 11%
29°C 6%
$20,295 Vol.
$20,295 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
39%
31°C
40%
32°C
11%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
1%
31°C 40%
30°C 39%
32°C 11%
29°C 6%
$20,295 Vol.
$20,295 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
39%
31°C
40%
32°C
11%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on São Paulo's highest temperature for March 22 hinges on ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS, which project peaks of 30-31°C amid a persistent heat dome over southeastern Brazil, with INMET issuing heat alerts up to 32°C. The razor-thin split between 30°C (36%) and 31°C (39.5%) reflects uncertainty in afternoon sea breeze timing and convective cloud development, which could suppress peaks by 1°C through evaporative cooling, versus urban heat island amplification pushing toward 31°C. Historical March averages hover at 28°C, but recent days' anomalies—exceeding 33°C—signal elevated risk, though model consensus tempers 32°C+ odds below 15%. Final 12Z runs today may sharpen resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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