Trader consensus heavily favors a Sao Paulo high of 30°C (36% implied probability), driven by ensemble forecasts from INMET and international models like GFS and ECMWF, which converge on 29-31°C amid persistent subtropical high pressure suppressing rainfall. Recent developments include yesterday's observed high of 29.2°C and low humidity (around 40%), aligning with early autumn patterns where sea breeze moderation caps peaks below 32°C. Historical March maxima average 29.5°C, with El Niño residuals boosting warmth but not extremes; upcoming hourly updates from local stations could shift odds if cloud cover builds. Lower probabilities for 35°C+ reflect rare heat dome risks absent in current soundings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 24?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 24?
30°C 30%
29°C 19%
31°C 19%
32°C 16%
25°C ou moins
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
11%
29°C
19%
30°C
36%
31°C
19%
32°C
16%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
3%
30°C 30%
29°C 19%
31°C 19%
32°C 16%
25°C ou moins
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
11%
29°C
19%
30°C
36%
31°C
19%
32°C
16%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a Sao Paulo high of 30°C (36% implied probability), driven by ensemble forecasts from INMET and international models like GFS and ECMWF, which converge on 29-31°C amid persistent subtropical high pressure suppressing rainfall. Recent developments include yesterday's observed high of 29.2°C and low humidity (around 40%), aligning with early autumn patterns where sea breeze moderation caps peaks below 32°C. Historical March maxima average 29.5°C, with El Niño residuals boosting warmth but not extremes; upcoming hourly updates from local stations could shift odds if cloud cover builds. Lower probabilities for 35°C+ reflect rare heat dome risks absent in current soundings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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