Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tokyo high of 17°C (33%) or 16°C (29%) for March 24, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast predicting 16-18°C under a stable high-pressure ridge fostering mild southerly winds and ample sunshine. Global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles show tight clustering around these values, with mean outputs near 16.5°C, differentiating them from warmer 18-19°C outliers via projected partial cloudiness capping peaks. Historical March 24 averages hover at 13-14°C per JMA records, but recent warm anomalies—linked to Pacific sea surface temperature rises—elevate odds; urban heat island effects in central Tokyo add 1-2°C. Key watch: afternoon convective risks could shave 1°C, with observations resolving post-6 PM JST.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 24?
16°C 29%
17°C 29%
18°C 17%
15°C 10%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
3%
14°C
6%
15°C
10%
16°C
29%
17°C
29%
18°C
17%
19°C
9%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 29%
17°C 29%
18°C 17%
15°C 10%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
3%
14°C
6%
15°C
10%
16°C
29%
17°C
29%
18°C
17%
19°C
9%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tokyo high of 17°C (33%) or 16°C (29%) for March 24, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast predicting 16-18°C under a stable high-pressure ridge fostering mild southerly winds and ample sunshine. Global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles show tight clustering around these values, with mean outputs near 16.5°C, differentiating them from warmer 18-19°C outliers via projected partial cloudiness capping peaks. Historical March 24 averages hover at 13-14°C per JMA records, but recent warm anomalies—linked to Pacific sea surface temperature rises—elevate odds; urban heat island effects in central Tokyo add 1-2°C. Key watch: afternoon convective risks could shave 1°C, with observations resolving post-6 PM JST.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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