Trader consensus heavily favors a Beijing high of 22°C (46.5% implied probability) based on the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on daytime peaks in the 21-23°C range amid a persistent warm spell. Recent observations show Beijing's early March highs averaging 18-21°C—5-8°C above seasonal norms—driven by southerly winds and high-pressure ridging funneling mild air from southern China, amplified by urban heat effects. Yesterday's 21°C high and stable model runs bolster this outlook, though minor divergences introduce uncertainty, with 21°C (25%) and 23°C (13.5%) as strong contenders ahead of final hourly verifications.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
22°C 47%
21°C 27%
23°C 13%
20°C 8%
$13,987 Vol.
$13,987 Vol.
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
8%
21°C
27%
22°C
47%
23°C
13%
24°C
7%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 47%
21°C 27%
23°C 13%
20°C 8%
$13,987 Vol.
$13,987 Vol.
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
8%
21°C
27%
22°C
47%
23°C
13%
24°C
7%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a Beijing high of 22°C (46.5% implied probability) based on the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on daytime peaks in the 21-23°C range amid a persistent warm spell. Recent observations show Beijing's early March highs averaging 18-21°C—5-8°C above seasonal norms—driven by southerly winds and high-pressure ridging funneling mild air from southern China, amplified by urban heat effects. Yesterday's 21°C high and stable model runs bolster this outlook, though minor divergences introduce uncertainty, with 21°C (25%) and 23°C (13.5%) as strong contenders ahead of final hourly verifications.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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