Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 30°C high in São Paulo on March 21, driven by ensemble weather models from INMET and international forecasters like ECMWF, which project a precise peak of 29-31°C amid stable autumn conditions with light southerly winds and partial cloud cover suppressing extremes. Historical data shows March maxima averaging 28-30°C at Guarulhos Airport (the likely measurement site), with no recent heatwave signals from sea surface temperatures or upper-air patterns. This positioning holds barring rare disruptions like a sudden föhn-like downslope flow from the Serra do Mar or stalled frontal system, which could push readings to 32°C+ but occur in under 5% of similar setups per climatology.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 21?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 21?
30°C 100.0%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$66,096 Vol.
$66,096 Vol.
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 100.0%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$66,096 Vol.
$66,096 Vol.
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 30°C high in São Paulo on March 21, driven by ensemble weather models from INMET and international forecasters like ECMWF, which project a precise peak of 29-31°C amid stable autumn conditions with light southerly winds and partial cloud cover suppressing extremes. Historical data shows March maxima averaging 28-30°C at Guarulhos Airport (the likely measurement site), with no recent heatwave signals from sea surface temperatures or upper-air patterns. This positioning holds barring rare disruptions like a sudden föhn-like downslope flow from the Serra do Mar or stalled frontal system, which could push readings to 32°C+ but occur in under 5% of similar setups per climatology.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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