Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS point to Shanghai's highest temperature on March 25 clustering around 16-17°C, fueling the tight race in trader odds where these outcomes command nearly 58% implied probability combined. Differentiating factors include a stable high-pressure system suppressing extremes, mild southerly winds boosting daytime heating slightly above seasonal norms (historical March 25 highs average 15°C), and urban heat island effects in the megacity potentially edging readings toward 17°C. Model spread reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze incursions from the East China Sea, with soundings showing low-level moisture that could cap peaks at 16°C; traders await hourly observations from Shanghai's official Xujiahui station for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 25?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 25?
16°C 30%
17°C 28%
15°C 18%
18°C 17%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
10%
14°C
7%
15°C
18%
16°C
30%
17°C
28%
18°C
17%
19°C
11%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 30%
17°C 28%
15°C 18%
18°C 17%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
10%
14°C
7%
15°C
18%
16°C
30%
17°C
28%
18°C
17%
19°C
11%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS point to Shanghai's highest temperature on March 25 clustering around 16-17°C, fueling the tight race in trader odds where these outcomes command nearly 58% implied probability combined. Differentiating factors include a stable high-pressure system suppressing extremes, mild southerly winds boosting daytime heating slightly above seasonal norms (historical March 25 highs average 15°C), and urban heat island effects in the megacity potentially edging readings toward 17°C. Model spread reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze incursions from the East China Sea, with soundings showing low-level moisture that could cap peaks at 16°C; traders await hourly observations from Shanghai's official Xujiahui station for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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