Trader sentiment on Shanghai's March 23 high temperature hinges on the razor-thin split between 15°C (39.5%) and 16°C (35.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peaks of 14-17°C under partly cloudy skies and mild southerly flow. Recent runs have nudged odds upward from sub-15°C baselines, reflecting diminished precipitation odds and enhanced diurnal heating from urban heat island effects in this megacity. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon insolation—cloud breaks could push to 16-17°C—versus lingering morning chill, with historical March averages around 14°C providing context amid this warmer-than-normal air mass; final resolution awaits Shanghai observatory data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 23?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 23?
15°C 38%
16°C 32%
17°C 15%
14°C 13%
$34,042 Vol.
$34,042 Vol.
11°C or below
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
13%
15°C
38%
16°C
32%
17°C
15%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
1%
15°C 38%
16°C 32%
17°C 15%
14°C 13%
$34,042 Vol.
$34,042 Vol.
11°C or below
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
13%
15°C
38%
16°C
32%
17°C
15%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Shanghai's March 23 high temperature hinges on the razor-thin split between 15°C (39.5%) and 16°C (35.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peaks of 14-17°C under partly cloudy skies and mild southerly flow. Recent runs have nudged odds upward from sub-15°C baselines, reflecting diminished precipitation odds and enhanced diurnal heating from urban heat island effects in this megacity. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon insolation—cloud breaks could push to 16-17°C—versus lingering morning chill, with historical March averages around 14°C providing context amid this warmer-than-normal air mass; final resolution awaits Shanghai observatory data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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