Trader sentiment on Shanghai's highest temperature March 22 clusters tightly around 16-18°C (62% combined implied probability), driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting mild early-spring highs amid southerly winds from a weakening high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include model divergence on afternoon cloud cover timing—ECMWF leans cooler at 16-17°C with partial overcast suppressing insolation, while GFS favors clearer skies pushing toward 18-19°C via enhanced solar heating and urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's dense metropolis. Recent observations show overnight lows near 10°C, supporting a diurnal range of 6-9°C, with final hourly forecasts from CMA expected to sharpen odds before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
18°C 26%
16°C 22%
17°C 18%
19°C 12%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
7%
15°C
8%
16°C
22%
17°C
18%
18°C
26%
19°C
12%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
10%
18°C 26%
16°C 22%
17°C 18%
19°C 12%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
7%
15°C
8%
16°C
22%
17°C
18%
18°C
26%
19°C
12%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Shanghai's highest temperature March 22 clusters tightly around 16-18°C (62% combined implied probability), driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting mild early-spring highs amid southerly winds from a weakening high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include model divergence on afternoon cloud cover timing—ECMWF leans cooler at 16-17°C with partial overcast suppressing insolation, while GFS favors clearer skies pushing toward 18-19°C via enhanced solar heating and urban heat island amplification in Shanghai's dense metropolis. Recent observations show overnight lows near 10°C, supporting a diurnal range of 6-9°C, with final hourly forecasts from CMA expected to sharpen odds before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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