Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 (83.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast predicting a midday peak near 48°F amid cloudy skies, breezy northerly winds, and lingering effects from a recent cold front. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on cool upper-air temperatures suppressing any warm-air advection, with surface observations from O'Hare International Airport—the market's likely resolution station—already trending 5-10°F below seasonal norms. Historical March 22 highs average 45°F, with deviations rare without southerly flow; no such shift appears imminent per 12z model runs, positioning warmer bins as low-probability outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 88%
72-73°F 3.1%
74-75°F 3.1%
80-81°F 3.0%
63°F or below
83%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
3%
82°F or higher
2%
63°F or below 88%
72-73°F 3.1%
74-75°F 3.1%
80-81°F 3.0%
63°F or below
83%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
3%
82°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 (83.5% implied probability), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast predicting a midday peak near 48°F amid cloudy skies, breezy northerly winds, and lingering effects from a recent cold front. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on cool upper-air temperatures suppressing any warm-air advection, with surface observations from O'Hare International Airport—the market's likely resolution station—already trending 5-10°F below seasonal norms. Historical March 22 highs average 45°F, with deviations rare without southerly flow; no such shift appears imminent per 12z model runs, positioning warmer bins as low-probability outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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