Latest National Weather Service forecasts pinpoint Austin's March 25 high near 84-85°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and ample sunshine, anchoring trader consensus at 16% implied odds for both 83°F-or-below and 84-85°F outcomes amid model ensembles clustering in the low-to-mid 80s. Differentiating factors include GFS and ECMWF slight divergences—GFS leaning cooler at 82°F via lingering morning clouds, ECMWF hotter at 86°F with drier soils amplifying diurnal heating—against historical March 25 averages of 74°F and rare spikes above 90°F from southerly gusts. Low soil moisture and light winds heighten peak temperature uncertainty, with upcoming 18Z model runs pivotal for resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Austin on March 25?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 25?
83°F or below 16%
84-85°F 16%
98-99°F 14%
88-89°F 11%
83°F or below
16%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
10%
96-97°F
9%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
11%
102°F or higher
2%
83°F or below 16%
84-85°F 16%
98-99°F 14%
88-89°F 11%
83°F or below
16%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
10%
96-97°F
9%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
11%
102°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts pinpoint Austin's March 25 high near 84-85°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and ample sunshine, anchoring trader consensus at 16% implied odds for both 83°F-or-below and 84-85°F outcomes amid model ensembles clustering in the low-to-mid 80s. Differentiating factors include GFS and ECMWF slight divergences—GFS leaning cooler at 82°F via lingering morning clouds, ECMWF hotter at 86°F with drier soils amplifying diurnal heating—against historical March 25 averages of 74°F and rare spikes above 90°F from southerly gusts. Low soil moisture and light winds heighten peak temperature uncertainty, with upcoming 18Z model runs pivotal for resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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