Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF converge on Austin's highest temperature on March 24 clustering tightly around 86-91°F, fueling the near-even odds across leading bins as traders weigh subtle forecast divergences. Primary drivers include a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds that advect warm Gulf moisture northward, tempered by patchy cloud cover and residual soil moisture from recent rains, which could cap peaks at 84-85°F or push toward 90-91°F under clearer skies. The 12Z GFS run hints at slight warming versus ECMWF's drier profile, while historical March data shows similar setups averaging 88°F with a 20% spread. Key differentiator: diel heating rates, where stronger insolation favors higher bins amid low wind shear. Traders eye afternoon updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 31%
90-91°F 31%
84-85°F 30%
79°F or below
22%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
30%
86-87°F
31%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
31%
92-93°F
26%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
17%
98°F or higher
19%
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 31%
90-91°F 31%
84-85°F 30%
79°F or below
22%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
30%
86-87°F
31%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
31%
92-93°F
26%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
17%
98°F or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF converge on Austin's highest temperature on March 24 clustering tightly around 86-91°F, fueling the near-even odds across leading bins as traders weigh subtle forecast divergences. Primary drivers include a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds that advect warm Gulf moisture northward, tempered by patchy cloud cover and residual soil moisture from recent rains, which could cap peaks at 84-85°F or push toward 90-91°F under clearer skies. The 12Z GFS run hints at slight warming versus ECMWF's drier profile, while historical March data shows similar setups averaging 88°F with a 20% spread. Key differentiator: diel heating rates, where stronger insolation favors higher bins amid low wind shear. Traders eye afternoon updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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