Latest high-resolution weather models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, point to a midday peak near 28°C in Shenzhen on March 25, driving trader favoritism for that outcome at 28% implied probability, closely trailed by 27°C (22.5%) and 26°C (17%). This clustering reflects a strengthening subtropical ridge fostering clear skies and light winds, amplifying solar heating over urban surfaces via the heat island effect, against a March climatological average high of 24°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea breeze potential from the South China Sea, which could cap peaks at 26-27°C through coastal cooling, versus persistent highs near 30°C (14.5%) if offshore flow dominates; model spread of ±2°C underscores resolution uncertainty ahead of tomorrow's observations from local stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 25?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 25?
28°C 30%
30°C or higher 27%
26°C 25%
27°C 25%
20°C or below
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C
25%
27°C
25%
28°C
28%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
27%
28°C 30%
30°C or higher 27%
26°C 25%
27°C 25%
20°C or below
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C
25%
27°C
25%
28°C
28%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
27%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:20 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest high-resolution weather models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, point to a midday peak near 28°C in Shenzhen on March 25, driving trader favoritism for that outcome at 28% implied probability, closely trailed by 27°C (22.5%) and 26°C (17%). This clustering reflects a strengthening subtropical ridge fostering clear skies and light winds, amplifying solar heating over urban surfaces via the heat island effect, against a March climatological average high of 24°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea breeze potential from the South China Sea, which could cap peaks at 26-27°C through coastal cooling, versus persistent highs near 30°C (14.5%) if offshore flow dominates; model spread of ±2°C underscores resolution uncertainty ahead of tomorrow's observations from local stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes