Trader sentiment on Warsaw's March 25 high temperature heavily favors 15°C or higher at 57% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 14-17°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling mild continental air from the southwest. Recent IMGW observations confirm a warming trend, with March 22 highs reaching 13°C and early spring anomalies 2-3°C above the 1991-2020 climatological average of 9°C, boosting confidence in upper-teens outcomes. Lower probabilities for 12-14°C reflect model spread and potential cloud interference, while sub-10°C odds under 2% align with negligible cold-air intrusion risks per NOAA's global model consensus, though diurnal variability remains a key uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 25?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 25?
15°C or higher 50%
14°C 20%
13°C 20%
12°C 19%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
1%
9°C
17%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
19%
13°C
20%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
57%
15°C or higher 50%
14°C 20%
13°C 20%
12°C 19%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
1%
9°C
17%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
19%
13°C
20%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
57%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:22 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Warsaw's March 25 high temperature heavily favors 15°C or higher at 57% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 14-17°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling mild continental air from the southwest. Recent IMGW observations confirm a warming trend, with March 22 highs reaching 13°C and early spring anomalies 2-3°C above the 1991-2020 climatological average of 9°C, boosting confidence in upper-teens outcomes. Lower probabilities for 12-14°C reflect model spread and potential cloud interference, while sub-10°C odds under 2% align with negligible cold-air intrusion risks per NOAA's global model consensus, though diurnal variability remains a key uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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