Traders' tight clustering around 3-5°C highs for Toronto on March 25 reflects the latest Environment Canada and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS, GEM), which forecast cloudy conditions with scattered showers capping daytime peaks amid a lingering low-pressure trough from the Great Lakes. Recent overnight runs slightly warmed projections from sub-3°C, boosting 4°C (24.5%) and 5°C (22.5%) over 3°C (24.0%), while 0°C or below (18.8%) fades against March climatology averaging 6°C highs. Key differentiators include cloud cover modulating solar insolation—thicker decks favor 3°C, breaks enable 5°C—and urban heat island effects in Toronto potentially adding 1-2°C to official Pearson Airport readings used for resolution. Uncertainty persists in frontal timing, per NOAA SPC outlooks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Toronto on March 25?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 25?
4°C 25%
3°C 24%
5°C 23%
2°C 19%
0°C or below
18%
1°C
16%
2°C
19%
3°C
24%
4°C
25%
5°C
23%
6°C
18%
7°C
16%
8°C
14%
9°C
12%
10°C or higher
2%
4°C 25%
3°C 24%
5°C 23%
2°C 19%
0°C or below
18%
1°C
16%
2°C
19%
3°C
24%
4°C
25%
5°C
23%
6°C
18%
7°C
16%
8°C
14%
9°C
12%
10°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' tight clustering around 3-5°C highs for Toronto on March 25 reflects the latest Environment Canada and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS, GEM), which forecast cloudy conditions with scattered showers capping daytime peaks amid a lingering low-pressure trough from the Great Lakes. Recent overnight runs slightly warmed projections from sub-3°C, boosting 4°C (24.5%) and 5°C (22.5%) over 3°C (24.0%), while 0°C or below (18.8%) fades against March climatology averaging 6°C highs. Key differentiators include cloud cover modulating solar insolation—thicker decks favor 3°C, breaks enable 5°C—and urban heat island effects in Toronto potentially adding 1-2°C to official Pearson Airport readings used for resolution. Uncertainty persists in frontal timing, per NOAA SPC outlooks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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