Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Toronto high of 3°C at 33.5% implied probability, driven by Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest short-range forecasts indicating partly cloudy skies and light winds capping daytime peaks amid a weak upper-level trough over eastern North America. Recent model ensembles from GEM and GFS show mean highs near 2-4°C, with spread reflecting uncertainty in jet stream positioning—northerly flow risks dipping to 1°C or below (total 11.4%), while brief ridging could push 5°C+ (10.5%). Lake-effect moderation from Lake Ontario and urban heat add ~1°C baseline, but diurnal swings and cloud variability heighten divergence, underscoring March's volatile transition from winter norms averaging 6°C historically.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Toronto on March 23?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 23?
3°C 34%
2°C 22%
4°C 19%
5°C or higher 11%
-5°C or below
<1%
-4°C
1%
-3°C
1%
-2°C
1%
-1°C
1%
0°C
3%
1°C
6%
2°C
22%
3°C
34%
4°C
19%
5°C or higher
11%
3°C 34%
2°C 22%
4°C 19%
5°C or higher 11%
-5°C or below
<1%
-4°C
1%
-3°C
1%
-2°C
1%
-1°C
1%
0°C
3%
1°C
6%
2°C
22%
3°C
34%
4°C
19%
5°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Toronto high of 3°C at 33.5% implied probability, driven by Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest short-range forecasts indicating partly cloudy skies and light winds capping daytime peaks amid a weak upper-level trough over eastern North America. Recent model ensembles from GEM and GFS show mean highs near 2-4°C, with spread reflecting uncertainty in jet stream positioning—northerly flow risks dipping to 1°C or below (total 11.4%), while brief ridging could push 5°C+ (10.5%). Lake-effect moderation from Lake Ontario and urban heat add ~1°C baseline, but diurnal swings and cloud variability heighten divergence, underscoring March's volatile transition from winter norms averaging 6°C historically.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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